OBAMA'S CONSISTENTLY TROUBLING APPROVAL RATINGS – Andrew Malcolm of the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog has a sharp historical analysis of the president's approval ratings:

Great news for President Obama's never-ending, billion-dollar reelection campaign: His job approval rating didn't get any worse last quarter.

Of course, they're still not all that great -- they've averaged below 50% for most of his 912-day-old
In the quarter between April 20 and July 19, Gallup reports this morning, the Democrat averaged a 46.8% job approval.

It could be worse; Obama's seventh quarter average was only 44.7%.

But he's a long way from what now seems like the halcyon days of 63% approval after his first quarter, back in 2009 when Obama's term was so full of promise, like closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, holding unemployment below 8% and bringing partisan Washington back together.

The good news for the aging Obama, who starts his 51st year early next month, is that both Presidents Reagan and Clinton also averaged below majority approval in their 10th quarters and still went on to a second term.

The bad news is that Jimmy Carter did the same in 1980 and went on to defeat. Also, both Reagan and Clinton showed significant approval improvement between their ninth and tenth quarters.

Obama did not.

COMMENT:  As each month brings us closer to the election, it's clear that the GOP has a magnificent opportunity.  But head-to-head polling still predicts, even at this early date, a close election, and the outcome is far from guaranteed.  The liberals will fight for this president as they have for no other because of his historic symbolism and because the Democratic Party is mired in the thinking of the 1960s, as is Mr. Obama.  But, looking at the Republican field, no one can be considered close to a shoo-in.  These polls cannot be allowed to put us asleep.

July 21, 2011